Summary:
Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and a few tornadoes (some of which could be strong) are likely across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley area later today. Some of this activity will then progress East/Northeastward into portions of the Tennessee Valley and Deep South regions tonight and into the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning.
In general, severe thunderstorm activity is possible anywhere within the areas indicated on the above image. The activity will be most widespread within the tan and yellow shaded areas, and less extensive within the green shaded areas.
Population At Risk:
In total, the population within the highest severe weather risk area is 8.9 million (approximately 3.4 million households) and the total population at risk of experiencing some type of severe weather is approximately 41.0 million (approximately 15.5 million households).
The most significant risk of severe weather includes some larger cities such as:
-Jackson, MS
-Memphis, TN
-Nashville, TN
-Huntsville, AL
-Birmingham, AL
-Tuscaloosa, AL
-Evansville, IN
-Louisville, KY
Tornado Risk:
While an isolated tornado is possible with any severe thunderstorm, there are two primary areas where the potential for one or more strong, possibly long lived tornadoes is highest, as indicated by the yellow shaded areas on the image below:
Damaging Wind Risk:
Damaging winds will be a significant risk with most any of the severe thunderstorm activity later today into tonight, and especially within the red shaded area on the image below:
Discussion:
Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the mid-afternoon hours very near the Western edge of the severe weather outlook areas noted on the images above. The activity will then move and/or develop toward the East/Northeast across the remainder of the outlook area during the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours, and will progress further Eastward into Tuesday night.
The potential exists for thunderstorms to produce fairly widespread and locally significant wind damage, especially within the red shaded area noted on the wind damage risk area map. The potential also exists for a few scattered tornadoes across much of the same area during the same time period, especially within the yellow shaded areas on the tornado risk area map. It is possible that one or more of these tornadoes could be strong in intensity and/or have a longer than normal path length.
Isolated instances of large hail are also possible, especially in the Deep South portion of the outlook area, however the extensive wind damage and scattered tornado threats are expected to be the primary modes of severe weather with this event.
We will continue to monitor this developing situation and issue updates as conditions warrant.
